The Data Behind NFL Quarterbacks' Jersey Choices

An examination of how quarterback number selection in the NFL has evolved.

It all started with a casual conversation while watching the Packers’ game last weekend. My wife and I were entertaining that classic football fan hypothetical: if we were NFL quarterbacks, what number would we wear? While most fans’ imaginations drift toward the iconic numbers of their heroes, I found myself thinking strategically. What if, instead of following in the footsteps of legends, there was an opportunity to stake a claim on a number without the weight of historical greatness?

This seemingly simple thought experiment led me down a fascinating rabbit hole of NFL history. Using Pro Football Reference’s comprehensive database, I analyzed every quarterback jersey number from 1 to 19, tracking the accumulated Approximate Value (AV) of players who’ve worn each digit. The results paint a fascinating picture of NFL quarterback history, revealing as much about the evolution of the sport as it does about our football heroes.

For those interested in exploring the data while reading the rest of this article, you can access the full dataset used in this analysis through the following link: Access the Spreadsheet.

The Mount Rushmore of QB Numbers

The most storied quarterback number in NFL history isn't even close: #12 towers above the rest with a staggering total AV of 2,325. To put this in perspective, that's nearly 50% more than the next closest number. This dominance stems from an unprecedented collection of legends, starting with Tom Brady, whose 326 AV reflects his two-decade reign as the NFL's most dominant force. Aaron Rodgers added his own chapter with 231 AV, mastering efficiency while redefining quarterback play. The number's legacy extends back through Terry Bradshaw's Steel Curtain era (140 AV), Roger Staubach's America's Team heyday (127 AV), and Joe Namath's revolutionary impact (115 AV).

The next tier of numbers tells equally compelling stories. Number 10, with its accumulated 1,576 AV, showcases the evolution of quarterback play through generations. Fran Tarkenton, the original scrambler, contributed 233 AV while revolutionizing mobility at the position. Eli Manning later added 169 AV, writing his legacy through two improbable Super Bowl runs. Jim Zorn's 86 AV might seem modest by comparison, but as Seattle's first star, he helped establish football in the Pacific Northwest.

The legacy of #7 (1,569 total AV) weaves together three distinctly different styles of play. Ben Roethlisberger's improvisational brilliance earned 208 AV, while John Elway's clutch performances netted 206 AV. Michael Vick's 108 AV might understate his impact, as he fundamentally changed how we view quarterback athleticism.

The Road Less Numbered

Some numbers tell their stories through absence rather than achievement.

Take #6, for instance. While it ranks near the bottom with just 303 total AV, its story is particularly intriguing. Despite being worn by 34 different quarterbacks in NFL history, only three have managed to accumulate an AV above 40: Jay Cutler (109), Baker Mayfield (61), and Bubby Brister (42). This creates an unusual opportunity - a single-digit number with minimal historical baggage but prime visibility. The number's relative "emptiness" in terms of legacy makes it an intriguing choice for future quarterbacks looking to build their own brand without the shadow of past greatness.

With just 441 total AV, #2 presents another fascinating case study in underutilization. Matt Ryan's 210 AV accounts for nearly half of the number's total value, followed by a significant drop to Aaron Brooks' 73 AV. Zach Wilson, who recently switched to #4 after wearing #2 for his first three years, contributed just 14 AV. Even with former #1 overall pick Tim Couch (33 AV) and Carson Wentz (14 AV) in its history, the number has struggled to find sustained success. With Wilson's departure from #2 and no current high-profile quarterbacks claiming it, perhaps the NFL's signal callers are content to let Matt Ryan's legacy stand undisturbed – or maybe they're just steering clear of a number that seems to carry more burden than blessing.

Despite ranking 11th overall with 743 total AV, #5 tells a story of consistent quality without transcendent greatness. Donovan McNabb leads all #5 quarterbacks with 138 AV, followed by Joe Flacco (120) and Kerry Collins (90). This pattern suggests a number that produces solid careers but has yet to be associated with all-time greatness - creating an interesting opportunity for future quarterbacks to elevate its status.

The case of #13 reveals how superstition can shape NFL history. Despite Dan Marino’s exceptional career and his impressive 216 AV, this “unlucky” number has remained unpopular among elite quarterbacks. Only 14 quarterbacks in NFL history have worn #13 and recorded an AV above 0, compared to 54 for the more popular #12. This superstition-driven avoidance has left a noticeable gap in the NFL’s numerical landscape.

Perhaps most intriguing is the paradox of #19. Johnny Unitas, one of the NFL's founding fathers of modern quarterbacking, accumulated 145 AV wearing this number. Yet surprisingly, #19 has the lowest total AV of any quarterback number.

The Modern Numbers Race

Today's NFL features several fascinating numerical narratives unfolding in real-time. The battle for #4's legacy sees Dak Prescott (107 AV) closing in on Derek Carr (112 AV), while both chase Brett Favre's towering mark of 259 AV. This number perfectly represents the intersection of historical significance and modern reinvention.

Josh Allen's meteoric rise wearing #17 (92 AV and climbing) shows how new stars can redefine a number's meaning. While Philip Rivers set a high bar with 218 AV, Allen's dynamic playing style is writing a new chapter in the number's history, exemplifying the evolution of the quarterback position itself.

The renaissance of #1 tells perhaps the most compelling modern story. Cam Newton's innovative play style earned 140 AV, nearly matching Warren Moon's trailblazing 163 AV. Now, young stars like Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa are adding their own chapters to this single digit's legacy, riding the wave of popularity for previously overlooked numbers.

The Numbers Behind the Numbers

The data reveals fascinating patterns in how quarterback numbers have evolved over time. Consider the stark divide between single and double digits: numbers 1-9 have accumulated a total of 7,450 AV throughout NFL history, or about 828 per number, while numbers 10-19 have amassed 9,893 AV (989 per number). When normalized to account for the different number of jerseys in each range (9 for 1-9 and 10 for 10-19), the average total AV per jersey number shows that numbers 10-19 have earned 19% more AV. This gap reflects decades of unwritten rules and expectations about what a quarterback “should” wear.

Historical Distribution

The evolution of quarterback numbers tells a story of gradual transformation across distinct eras. Before 1970, we see a heavy concentration in the 10-19 range, with roughly 81% of quarterback value accumulated in these traditional numbers. This reflects an era when unwritten rules and conventional wisdom heavily influenced number selection, and quarterbacks were expected to fit a certain mold both in play style and appearance.

The period from 1970 through 1999 marked a shift toward more diverse number selection. As the game modernized and new offensive philosophies emerged, quarterbacks began to break free from some traditional constraints. Yet even in this era of change, the gravitational pull of established quarterback numbers remained strong, with 61% of the normalized AV accumulated by numbers in the traditional range.

Since 2000, NFL quarterback jersey numbers have undergone a notable shift toward single digits, with these numbers accounting for 70% of all quarterback AV accumulated. The data reveals a clear dominance of single-digit jerseys in terms of performance:

• Numbers 8 and 9 lead the way with exceptional AV totals of 1,099 and 1,006 respectively.

• Numbers 2 and 4 have also been highly productive, accumulating AVs of 873 and 951.

• Number 3 has amassed a significant 771 AV.

This trend stands in contrast to traditional quarterback numbers. For example, the iconic number 12 - despite being historically associated with legendary quarterbacks - has recorded a total AV of 697 since 2000. Even more striking is number 13, which has managed only 70 AV during this period.

This data strongly suggests a modern era preference for single-digit jerseys among high-performing quarterbacks, marking a significant departure from historical numbering conventions.

Generational Shift

We're also seeing a fascinating generational shift in how numbers carry meaning. While previous generations might have avoided certain numbers out of respect for past greats, today's players often actively seek to "carry the torch" of their childhood heroes. This changing relationship with legacy and tradition has helped reshape the numerical landscape of the NFL.

To illustrate this shift, the following chart shows the distribution of total AV accumulated by quarterbacks’ jersey numbers since 1950. This visual representation highlights how different numbers have contributed to the game over the decades, reflecting the evolving significance and legacy of each jersey number.

Here are a few other interesting observations from the breakdown of jersey numbers and total AV for QBs by decade:

• #12 had the strongest decade of any number in the 1970s (757 AV), driven by quarterbacks like Terry Bradshaw and Bob Griese.

• #15 recorded 0 AV between 2000 and 2009, which was the only time a jersey didn’t accumulated AV in a decade since the 70s (#1 and #2 both came up with 0 AV that decade).

• #7 peaked in the 1980s (507 AV).

• #2 reached its highest in the 2010s (401 AV).

• #8 is showing recent dominance with strong 2010s and 2020s performance.

• #10 shows consistent performance with peaks in the 1960s (379) and 1970s (506), followed by a decline in the 1980s (286) and 1990s (265), but sees a short-lived rebound in the 2000s (507).

• #9 has seen a steady increase from the 1950s (50) to the 2000s (485), with a slight decline in the 2010s (374) but still maintaining a strong presence.

• 2000s and 2010s: Many numbers show high total AV in these decades, indicating strong performances from quarterbacks wearing a variety of numbers.

Below is the percentage share of total AV for each jersey number:

Implications

For aspiring quarterbacks, number selection now carries both opportunity and risk. Choosing a number with less historical weight offers the chance to build a unique legacy, but it also means forgoing the implicit gravitas that comes with traditional quarterback numbers. This strategic calculation reflects the modern player's need to balance personal branding with athletic achievement.

The data suggests that certain jersey numbers might be undervalued in terms of their marketing potential. While number 12 carries enormous expectations, numbers like 3 and 5 offer a sweet spot of historical significance (ranking 11th and 12th in total AV, respectively) without the overwhelming pressure.

What started as a casual "what if" conversation revealed a fascinating lens through which to view NFL history. The numbers tell stories of greatness, superstition, and evolution. They reflect changing times, shifting attitudes, and the eternal quest to make one's mark on the game.

As for my imaginary NFL quarterback self? I'd choose #19. Interestingly, it has a total AV of 19.60 since 2000 and is the least used number by far.

Even with Johnny Unitas's legacy, the number's modest historical footprint offers a unique opportunity to write a new chapter. Sometimes these thought experiments reveal more than just statistical curiosities—they illuminate the cultural and historical forces that shape even the most seemingly simple choices in professional football.